11-16-08

 11-16-08Badlands JournalAn unfortunate "community" column...Badlands Journal editorial board...11-14-08http://www.badlandsjournal.com/2008-11-14/006955Catching up on his newspaper reading, one member of the Badlands Journal editorial board noticed this advertisement for the UC/Great Valley Center couched innocuously in the "community columnists'" section of Modesto's McClatchy Chain outlet.11-05-08Modesto BeeBut Suppose for the sake of argument the anti-science rant about the causes of global warming is correct. Let's agree that the consumption of carbon-based fuels has nothing to do with the recent worldwide rise in temperatures.And lest we think...Eric Caine http://www.modbee.com/opinion/community/story/488013.htmlInstant communication, jet-speed transportation and the global economy have shrunk the world in ways unimaginable only a few years ago. Nations are now connected the way counties and states used to be, and counties can no longer be thought of as fiefdoms where planning decisions have only short-range effects. More than 20 years ago a few valley citizens, including Modesto's own Carol Whiteside, began realizing the valley is a region. They acknowledged our eminence in agriculture and also began to recognize the value of our grasslands, rivers, wetlands and riparian forests. Together, they began promoting a vision of the valley that planned for growth while preserving the world's best farmland and protecting our rivers and delta.Knee-jerk reactions to government control of planning ignore our need to face 21st century realities about growth and urban development. Stanislaus County needs to join other valley counties in acknowledging the value of regional planning. The question is no longer whether we need a regional blueprint but rather how to design and follow it.It seemed unusually disturbed, even for the Modesto intellectual set.To begin at the beginning, dissent about the causes of global warming (called "climate change" at UC and the Great Valley Center), is not necessarily anti-science. There is an antique tradition within science -- as opposed to technology -- that stresses skepticism. Aside from this minor point, we cannot figure out how the header relates to the story. If one wants to "go quantitative," empirical evidence strongly suggests that subprime and Alt A mortgages from the north San Joaquin Valley, securitized into bundles and sold globally, are having an impact also called "meltdown."Next we move on to the "fiefdom" theory of county government, which makes no sense at all in contrast to the statement about "knee-jerk reactions to government control of planning," that is, if counties are considered governments, which, in California, they are, and have primary land-use authority for unincorporated land in their jurisdictions.The choice of "short-range effects" to describe county attitudes toward planning may reveal the author's now total-immersion in UC/GVC-Speak, an ever-changing idiom that regardless, never amounts to more than the flak du jour of developer apologists. The proper term is cumulative impacts, but use of it would imply familiarity with the California Environmental Quality Act. Knowledge of CEQA is not likely to get the humble community columnist invited to the right addresses for dinner; however, familiarity with the latest development-design flak guarantees favorOnly a true, dyed-in-the-wool Modesto blowhard could have written of the nameless few (can we add the noble and wise?) Modestans, led by Carol Whiteside, who realized the San Joaquin Valley was a region. Too much Water, Wealth, Contentment and Health has produced a state of idiocy in Modesto, accompanying its idiotic growth, including former Mayor Whiteside's special gifts to Modesto: the Red Lion Inn, the opening of Pelandale Road, and the defunct villages concept. Did Whiteside even serve out her second term as mayor after she got a judgeship for her husband? Regardless of that forgotten chapter in her political history, she returned from Gov. Pete Wilson's office (Wilson, our father of electric utility deregulation and Prop. 187) years later to orchestrate the development of the Great Valley Center for Economic Development around the Coming of UC Merced.Other contenders for the crown of realizing the valley as a region include by are not limited to the Yokuts, Miwuks, Modocs and other surrounding tribes of Indians, Spanish and Portuguese explorers and ranchers, Father Serra (who avoided it), American mountain men, Henry Miller and other early settlers (who tried to own all of it), Southern Pacific and Santa Fe railroads, John Muir, the Bank of America, the federal Bureau of Reclamation, the State Water Project (not to mention the State of California, which has recognized the valley as a distinct region of itself since about 1850), innumerable colonies of farmers, farm organizations, the Dust Bowlers, Wallace Smith (Garden of the Sun), John Steinbeck (Grapes of Wrath), Carey McWilliams (Factories in the Field), Paul Taylor and Dorothea Lange, countless other writers and journalists through the decades, the McClatchy Co.,  generations of Valley legislators including such greats of pork-dispension as Bernie Sisk (Friant Dam) as well as men who brought good law, like Ralph Brown and John Williamson, giants of agribusiness like the Boswell, Salyer and DiGiorgio families, the water and irrigation districts, and environmentalists involved with the environmental disasters of Kesterson, the San Joaquin River, and UC Merced, among others. All Whiteside and the nameless, noble and wise Modesto few realized was the potential for more urban development in the Valley and the economic opportunity of forming a corporate funded front group to outmaneuver legitimate environmental organizations and co-opt public environmental concerns into large, coercive unity that doesn't reflect deep knowledge of Valley ecology or any real care to protect it. While it is possible that Whiteside and her nameless followers' minds are so addled by developer buzzwords that they are in fact sincere but just misguided, it is more likely they are just cynical exploiters of the opportunity to profitably serve corporate special interests. We do know they would not have survived the real estate bust if they had not been picked up by UC Merced.The 21st century realities about growth and urban development are that the San Joaquin Valley cannot absorb what it already has of this wonderful boon. Trading the "designs" of an extra-governmental regional planning group like the blueprint, dominated by regional developers as is the UC/GVC, for the legal local land-use authority -- however stupefied by its own corruption -- is not going to help the valley environment. Cutting-edge great thinkers about our region are already proposing to scrap the tedious but legal process of planning and replace it with a new concept: henceforth, we will design our blueprint of development without any greenprint at all. Groups like the blueprint have very little if any legal authority. They are formed by memoranda of understanding for the purpose of developing agendas, purporting to represent the consensus of a broad base of stakeholder interests, that can be carried by lobbyists to Sacramento and Washington in support of "public-private, win-win" proposals, in which the taxpayer subsidizes the developer. Blueprints, etc. are excellent advance political strategy by developers because it is likely that at some point in the near future pro-growth local, elected officials will be replaced by people that reflect more clearly the present, unfortunate economic reality as opposed to the latest real estate industry sales pitch.Several years ago, the member of the Badlands Journal editorial board warned the author of this piece of flak not to break bread with the grave diggers of his values. Not heeding the warning (academics are prone to childlike illusions of their own integrity), now we see him supporting the position -- as a "community columnist" no less -- of Stockton developers. It reminds us of the time representatives Richard Pombo and Dennis Cardoza, walking away from a luncheon including the very same developers, counting their loot and talking to the press about a grand, bipartisan coalition of politicians and developers for the glorious economic development of the valley. A few months later, they launched the worst assault on the Endangered Species Act in its history. If it had not been for Sen. Lincoln Chaffee, at the sacrifice of his seat, the bill might well have become law. As it was, both Pombo and Chaffee lost, but Modesto's absentee congressman, Dennis Cardozo of Maryland, remains, a top Blue Dog and Fairy Shrimp slayer, and a good friend of UC/Great Valley Center. Meanwhile, child and elder asthma increases, a new study quantifies the loss of income to the valley from death caused by the environment, and the speculative real estate boom that gave Whiteside and the nameless few their opportunity, continues to crash, damaging all of us who live in the valley and, speaking globally, many others, too. Modesto BeePollution quietly kills many in valley...KAREN DILLONhttp://www.modbee.com/opinion/story/500850.htmlIf someone is killed in a car accident, people talk about it. If the victim is a family member or friend, we grieve. If it is someone in the community, we at least take note of how and where the crash occurred, thinking of traffic trouble spots and asking whether alcohol or drugs were a factor.We're reminded often of the dangers on the road.But when someone dies prematurely as a result of air pollution, who hears? Worse, who seems to care?A new study on the costs of air pollution puts forth some startling numbers: In most counties in the San Joaquin Valley and the Los Angeles basin -- two of the most polluted regions in the country -- the number of people who die prematurely because of fine-particulate pollution exceeds the number dying in vehicle accidents each year. (See the Annual Deaths chart for a county by county breakdown.) Specifically, the researchers compared vehicle deaths with the harmful effects of PM2.5, the tiny particulate matter emitted by gasoline-powered vehicles, diesel engines, wood burning, power plants and so forth. High levels of PM2.5 and ozone make people sick, causing adults to miss work and children to miss school. They send people to hospital emergency rooms, provoke bronchitis and asthma attacks and, in the worst cases, contribute to early deaths.In addition to the human toll, the cost of dirty air to families, hospitals and businesses in these regions totals $28 million annually.These sobering findings are part of an air pollution study released last week by Jane Hall and Victor Brajer, economics professors at California State University, Fullerton, and Frederick Lurmann of Sonoma Technology Inc.Their study concludes that dirty air costs San Joaquin Valley residents $1,600 per person per year. Costs in the Los Angeles region are pegged at $1,250 per person. The 108-page study breaks down the impact by county, and it's a little comforting to know that the impacts are slightly less at the north end of the San Joaquin Valley. The number people hospitalized with respiratory ailments related to ozone, for example, is twice as high in Fresno and Kern counties than it is in Stanislaus and San Joaquin counties.This study was funded by the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, not by an industry group or environmental advocacy organization. It comes just as the California Air Resources Board is poised to vote on landmark regulations designed to reduce emissions from heavy-duty diesel trucks.If adopted by the board next month, the rules would require truck owners to install exhaust filters on their rigs starting in 2010. The rules also would require long-haul truckers to equip their vehicles with fuel-efficient tires and aerodynamic devices that lower greenhouse gas emissions and improve fuel economy.A coalition of truck owners, farmers, building contractors and others want the rules relaxed and postponed, in large part because of the bad economic climate. There's no doubt the economy is bad, and the rules would have a big cost. But, according to this study, the cost of staying with the status quo is even higher.This study also lends a sense of urgency to other efforts to reduce air pollution, even to things as basic as the tighter restrictions imposed on fireplace use in the valley this winter. (See adjoining editorial.)Though we've made some advances in reducing air pollution, we have a long way to go, and we must keep going.To read the executive summary or the full 108-page study, go to http://business.fullerton.edu/centers/iees.Sacramento BeeSpotlight shines on light pollution...McClatchy Newspapershttp://www.sacbee.com/702/v-print/story/1402181.htmlKANSAS CITY, Mo. -- Stargazers have complained for years because cities shine so much light into the night sky that stars disappear behind the gray glow.Now researchers are beginning to worry that light pollution - the artificial brightening of our nights - is creating problems for wildlife and possibly even human health.Indeed, a series of studies in the past decade has led some scientists to investigate whether there may be an association between light pollution and cancer, especially breast cancer. "It could potentially be a problem," said David E. Blask, professor of structural and cellular biology at Tulane University. "All of us are exposed to some light at night, so it really is an issue for everybody."Robert Wagner of Kansas City, who has become a leader in fighting local light pollution, said most people are not aware of the problem."Ninety percent of any law we pass will be education," Wagner said. "When people realize there is better lighting that won't annoy your neighbor or impair your driving on a road, they will want it."Wagner is part of an international dark-sky movement that has been pushing state and local leaders to pass laws to control light pollution.Some cities have taken dramatic steps. As part of a broader development ordinance, Kansas City could pass light pollution restrictions as early as next month.One side benefit, advocates say: Correcting light pollution could save billions of dollars a year in energy costs and also help slow climate change.The most confounding part of light pollution is that it is so simple to fix, says Peter Strasser, senior technical adviser in Arizona for the International Dark-Sky Association.It is as easy as designing light fixtures that are hooded so they cast light downward - not horizontally or upward. In addition, businesses and homeowners should turn off lights when they are not being used."People say, 'Is that all there is to it?' " Strasser said. "Pretty much, that's all there is to it. But, boy, there is all kinds of reluctance."Wagner and others have met several times with Kansas City staff about lighting. But public safety officials are concerned that limiting lights at night would increase crime and traffic accidents."We would have to approach that very carefully so that we wouldn't have unintended consequences," said Dennis Murphey, the city's chief environmental officer, who was at the meetings.To get a sense for the magnitude of modern light pollution, consider: When Galileo studied the Milky Way 400 years ago, it was so bright that it cast shadows on the ground. Today most Americans no longer live in a place where they can see it with the naked eye.And that much light creates some concerns:-Cancer: Stray light from streetlamps has caused many a sleepless night, but studies in the past decade have raised questions about a link between nighttime lighting and certain forms of cancer.The studies have prompted further research by both the federal government and Great Britain.The most recent study, released last summer, showed that Israeli women living in neighborhoods with light bright enough at midnight to read a book had a 73 percent greater chance of getting breast cancer than women who live in areas that receive light from the stars.One thing seems certain, according to other studies: Artificial lighting, especially for people working the night shift, interferes with the production of melatonin. That is the hormone that controls our circadian rhythm, the day-night cycle.Melatonin also has been found to ward off cancer, and people with decreased levels of melatonin are more susceptible to cancer, the studies sayNow the question is whether light pollution is intense enough to affect melatonin levels, said Blask, who has been studying the issue for years.More studies are needed, he and other scientists say."I can see the logic," said Mark Rea, director of the lighting research center at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in New York. "But the jury is still out."-Wildlife: Electric lights take their biggest toll on birds, experts say. During migration, birds use the stars for navigation. Thousands of birds have become disoriented by the bright lights of buildings, crashing into them.In Chicago and Toronto, officials dim or turn off what they consider unnecessary lights twice a year during migration to prevent birds from being killed."The thing that is so curious, if you deemed them not necessary and turned them off, why after that brief period of time do you turn them back on?" Strasser said.The problem exists in the Kansas City area, too, said Jill DeWitt of Audubon Missouri."Taking this issue seriously will save the lives of thousands of birds annually while reducing global warming pollution," DeWitt said.Numerous field studies are being conducted to find out how to protect wildlife, bats, fish and reptiles from light pollution. Scientists also are questioning why fireflies have largely disappeared in recent years - pesticides or light?Kansas City, with 90,000 street lights, has installed 25,000 flat-lens lamps that project downward. The city requires new developments to use those lights. The city is gradually changing out the others or retrofitting hoods.The ordinance would:-Prohibit flashing or revolving exterior lights from being visible outside the property line.-Require all outdoor lighting to be reflected away from homes and streets.-Require light fixtures under gas station canopies to be recessed.Missouri legislators will consider a light pollution bill in the next session, and one is being discussed in Kansas.Several North American cities and states, including Arizona, California and Calgary, Alberta, in Canada, have rules to control light pollution. Such steps include installing hooded streetlights, limiting lights at residences and turning off business lights.In the 1970s, Tucson, Ariz., officials saw that their tall mountains and dark sky were disappearing behind "glare bombs." So they took action."We have a million people here, but I can see the Milky Way from my driveway every evening," Strasser said.ON THE WEB   International Dark-Sky Association: www.darksky.org Red Hawk Casino betting against the downturn...Dale Kaslerhttp://www.sacbee.com/103/v-print/story/1401588.htmlIt's a $530 million bet in a dicey economy.The Sacramento area's newest Indian casino, the Red Hawk Casino off Highway 50 in Shingle Springs, is ready to open just as consumers are snapping shut their wallets. The casino industry is slumping, revenues are falling and some operators are running into financial stress.Analysts say Red Hawk probably won't do as well at the start as originally forecast by its owners, the Shingle Springs Band of Miwok Indians. The casino opens in late December. "You're going to see less traffic than you would in a good economy," said Ken Adams, a gambling consultant in Reno.Yet analysts also believe Red Hawk, which endured years of litigation before breaking ground, will prevail. It will take some business from other casinos in the area, including the ultra-successful Thunder Valley Casino near Lincoln. It will bring a boom to a quiet patch of El Dorado County and is being warmly welcomed by county officials who once fought to keep it out.The weak economy might even help Red Hawk a little. To save money, customers might choose Shingle Springs instead of driving to Reno or Lake Tahoe, where casinos are already struggling because of Indian gambling."The people in South Lake Tahoe think it's going to eat their lunch," Adams said.But the downturn will probably hurt everyone. Thunder Valley has gone flat even though it's getting more customers as area residents pass up trips to Reno and Las Vegas. "People aren't spending as much, they're not gambling as much," said spokesman Doug Elmets.Still, while much of the industry is struggling, the casinos around Sacramento are expanding. As Red Hawk nears completion, Thunder Valley is working on a hotel tower, performing arts center and other improvements at a reported cost of $1 billion. Cache Creek Casino Resort in the Capay Valley is spending $300 million to triple its hotel capacity and add restaurants and a conference center.Even in a recession, Red Hawk could generate revenue of $250 million a year, said Bill Eadington of the Institute for the Study of Gambling & Commercial Gaming at the University of Nevada, Reno. That's about half what he estimates Thunder Valley takes in.Red Hawk "may not do as well as they had hoped when they open, but I'm sure they'll be successful," said Richard Wells, a former Harrah's Entertainment Inc. executive who runs Wells Gaming Research in Reno."While we're not recession-proof or impervious to it, we're more resilient than other categories," said Heidi Hamers, Red Hawk's vice president for marketing. "We feel it, but we don't feel it like some other businesses do."The tribe's chairman, Nick Fonseca, declined to be interviewed. Red Hawk is run by Lakes Entertainment Inc., a Minneapolis casino operator.With a cost of $530 million, Red Hawk is an ambitious project. The Miwoks paid for construction of new highway exit ramps. There will be six restaurants and 88,000 square feet of casino space.The facility will open with 2,000 slots, but the tribe's compact with the state will allow it to install up to 5,000 machines. In return, the tribe will pay the state 20 percent to 25 percent of slot revenue, more than any other gambling tribe in the state.The casino is opening when other projects are being mothballed. Work recently halted on the Echelon, a $4.8 billion casino on the Las Vegas Strip. Harrah's is scaling back construction of a Mississippi casino, Margaritaville, named for the Jimmy Buffett song.Publicly traded casino stocks have plummeted. Station Casinos, which manages Thunder Valley and is attempting to build casinos in Chico and Rohnert Park, had its credit rating downgraded by Moody's Investors Service.Perhaps the most reliable indicator of the industry's health, gambling revenue in Nevada, fell 5.4 percent in September. Revenue fell 20 percent in Reno and 17 percent at Lake Tahoe.Besides fighting a weak economy, Red Hawk also must establish itself against well-known California casinos. It's just an hour's drive from both Thunder Valley and Jackson Rancheria Casino.Yet Alan Meister, who studies Indian gambling for the Analysis Group consulting firm in Los Angeles, said there's room in the area for another tribal casino."We believe we'll grow the market rather than divide the market," said Hamers, the Red Hawk executive.Red Hawk will be one of El Dorado County's largest employers, with 1,750 full-time equivalent workers (18,000 people have applied). There are other potential benefits: Hamers said the casino will use area suppliers "when at all feasible." Red Hawk could mean more tourists for Apple Hill and the area wineries."There's no reason why someone couldn't enjoy the wineries midday and the casino activities in the evening," said Beth Jones of Lava Cap Winery in Placerville.But economic spinoffs aren't certain. Eadington said Indian casinos tend to be stand-alone affairs. There might not be a rush from outside developers to build hotels and shops, he said. A hotel is under construction in Placerville, but city officials said it wasn't sparked by the casino.Charlie Hummer, who opposes the casino, believes the economic benefits of Red Hawk are being exaggerated."People will drive up to the casino, spending their money there – and that's where the money will stay," said Hummer, vice chairman of an area residents group called Voices for Rural Living. "And they'll go home."Hummer's group has been fighting the tribe since the Miwoks opened a short-lived, tentlike casino in 1997. Voices for Rural Living recently sued the El Dorado Irrigation District over its decision to supply water to Red Hawk, but Hummer said he realizes the casino is sure to open.County officials used to oppose the project, too, saying it would create congestion and other burdens. Their dispute with the Miwoks ended in 2006, when the tribe agreed to pay at least $190 million over 20 years to remedy traffic and other issues.Sam Driggers, El Dorado's economic development coordinator, said Red Hawk is a "game-changer" that will have an enormous – and welcome – impact on his semi-rural county. "Instead of a pebble being thrown into a pond, it's more of a rock," he said. Reader Commenthttp://www.sacbee.com/103/story/1401588.htmlWhere's the rest of the story. Unless there has been a recent change, there is still no water at the casino. The Indians are still engaged in a lawsuit with their residential neighbors over a water hook-up with EID (the water district) and plan on TRUCKING in their water on the highway. Also, the Indians do not have a SEWER hook-up with EID and will be hauling out their human waste in TRUCKS up and down Highway 50. This casino keeps promising to open "next" month, first it was Oct, then Nov, and now Dec. It's going to be like shooting fish in a barrel for the local keystone cops and DUI drivers. They are already arresting over 1000 people a year now in podunk El Dorado County (according to the Mt. Democrat) for drinking and driving. Remember that when drinking at the casino. There is only one way out of the place. The county Board of Stuporvisors only agreed to the casino after realizing the county was going broke and sold out the voters for the money. -- BordeauStockton RecordLodi's vision for growth: compactGeneral Plan in line with history of anti-sprawl...Daniel Thigpenhttp://www.recordnet.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081116/A_NEWS/811160319/-1/A_NEWSLODI - Lodi planners have created a crystal ball that offers glimpses into the small town's future and clues as to how Lodi may look after 20 more years of growth.And so far, those that have looked inside offer a variety of reactions.But most notably, there is little debate - for now, at least - over sprawl, a typical point of contention when cities update their general plans, state-mandated blueprints for growth.If anything, the recent unveiling of Lodi's projected growth and land uses for the next two decades has, from some, elicited cautious praise for its perceived balance: controlled, condensed growth along city boundaries combined with a targeted rejuvenation of the town's inner core.Others are concerned the plan does not do enough to stimulate Lodi's economy and believe what little land Lodi has should be used for job creation.The proposalLodi's populace has long been known for its aversion to sprawl, and city policy reflects that. The town has a 2 percent growth cap. In a sense, those realities keep planners from proposing any drastic expansions.Lodi also historically has grown at a rate much lower than 2 percent while the rest of the Valley exploded during the final years of the housing boom.The newest General Plan proposal takes that context into consideration while acknowledging that much can change in 20 years. Specific land uses and growth types are proposed on the outskirts of town, but an "urban reserve," which doesn't specify any proposed land uses, is drafted in case Lodi actually builds out at its full 2 percent by 2030.If so, city planners estimate that by that time, Lodi could be home to as many as 100,000 people and 47,000 new jobs.Planners offer several recommendations:» New residential development would be focused to the south and west of Lodi's current boundaries. But those neighborhoods would be anchored by shopping centers and offices within walking distance.» To the east and southeast, planners envision focusing growth of business parks and industries, capitalizing on easy access to Highway 99.» Further south, planners have given room for a greenbelt straddling Armstrong Road. Property owners and city and county officials are in talks to zone the land in a way that would allow for limited development while preserving its agricultural feel.On the whole, the proposed vision for growth is compact. There is an emphasis on redeveloping a mix of uses downtown and not expanding more than three miles from that center.ReactionAt a recent Planning Commission meeting, where policymakers got their first look at the proposal, commissioners seemed eager to fine-tune and tweak some of the elements before them. At the same time, there were very few negatives expressed about the overall plan."My initial impression was very positive," Commissioner Tim Mattheis said. "I think it's right on target with what we need."Likely to be discussed further: some expressed interest in designating a spot for a college site, should San Joaquin Delta College leaders reverse their decision to abandon expansion plans in Lodi.And business leaders don't appear convinced the proposal does enough to grow jobs.Pat Patrick, president and chief executive officer of the Lodi Chamber of Commerce, told commissioners he is concerned there isn't enough land set aside for high-paying industrial jobs.He also doubted whether land to the west should be set aside for neighborhoods when Lodi is slow to grow and needs land to expand its wine and agricultural tourism-based economy."I think we need some more realism in this plan," he told commissioners.Others praised the proposal for its balance."I think it's good (planners) kept a very small footprint; it's very tight and compact," Susan Hitchcock, a city council member and longtime slow-growth proponent, said. "I thought it was really well done."What's nextThe draft proposal is just one key step in the General Plan process, which is expected to take another year of fine-tuning.City leaders are weighing in on the current proposal before sending it back to the planners, who will then begin drafting lengthy growth policies and conduct a study of the plan's possible environmental impacts.The Planning Commission held off endorsing the proposal at its last meeting so it could obtain more information and allow for more public input.Throughout the process, Hitchcock said she hopes to hear from more general residents and fewer people who have financial or property interests in the General Plan's outcome.Vacancies fall for S.J. distribution centers...Bruce Spencehttp://www.recordnet.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081116/A_BIZ/811150308The U.S. distribution center market tightened in the third quarter with a sizable increase in vacancies to an average of 8.71 percent, according to a survey by the commercial real estate brokerage firm Colliers International.In San Joaquin County, however, the vacancy rate has been dropping quarter to quarter so far this year, though the overall vacancy rate stood at 10.3 percent in the third quarter.The warehouse/distribution center market in San Joaquin County has been improving since the first quarter of this year, while national warehouse activity has been contracting.Forty-two markets surveyed by Colliers posted a rise in vacancy rates, while 14 markets - including San Joaquin County - posted a decline.The county had the 16th-highest vacancy rate among 56 metropolitan areas surveyed nationally, a considerable improvement from the second quarter, when the area had the seventh-highest vacancy rate in the Colliers survey.Several big-name projects have come onto the county scene in recent months, including a mammoth Sears and Kmart distribution center of 780,000 square feet in Stockton and a 1.2 million development project for Crate and Barrel in Tracy.The industrial scene is steady, said Steve Carrigan, the city of Stockton's economic development director.But he expressed concern about calls from companies and projects that were supposed to get off the ground next year but are getting put off or delayed until 2010."You start to hear that a little bit now," he said. "We're going to hear it a lot more in coming weeks and months. The wave of slowdown is definitely coming to Stockton, and it's very frustrating for all of us, because it's going to be awhile before the economy turns."The area has long been a popular site for distribution centers because of its central location and proximity to major highways, rail, air and shipping centers.Mike Locke, CEO of the San Joaquin Partnership economic development group, said there has been some good news for the area, such as the Sears and Crate and Barrel projects, both aimed at improving efficiencies for the major retailers.Companies continue to look to this area as a prime site for distribution centers that are so much more efficient that they actually improve the companies' bottom lines, he said.Still, the partnership, which focuses on working with companies that want to expand or relocate to San Joaquin County, has seen the flow of company inquiries into the area fall off by as much as 20 percent this year, Locke said.The partnership is starting about eight or nine "new client" files a month these days, down from 10 or 11 usually. Also, the 16 projects sealed so far this year represent about a 25 decline from the usual pace.And job creation - a critical role in the partnership's mission - will probably hit about 1,500 new jobs this year, below what had been initially expected, he said.About 25 or so of the 100-plus clients sounding out the area for a business location are expected to close deals, he said. But between 25 and 30 are saying they're on hold for now, he added."We expected some decline," Locke said. "I don't know that it's any worse than we anticipated."Not only have there been many new projects come on line this year, but developers are also primed to produce between 3.5 million and 4 million square feet of new industrial space."Long term, there's confidence the market will absorb that over time," he said.Plus, that much available space gives this area an edge over regional competitors, he said.The partnership might reduce the number of target companies because of the slowdown, he said, adding that "the depth of this recession period is probably more intense that we've seen before.""It's a reflection of the marketplace, business activity, and the tightening and availability of credit," Locke said.Colliers continues to see weak demand in a slowing U.S. economy as a prime pressure behind climbing national vacancy rates, which have risen from 8.13 percent in the first quarter to 8.52 percent in the second to 8.71 percent last quarter.This ongoing notable weakness suggests that the industrial real estate market will continue to be affected by recessionary conditions, the report said."The warehouse leasing market keeps struggling in the face of a rapidly slowing economy," said Ross Moore, executive vice president and director of market and economic research at Colliers International. "Manufacturing, and in particular the auto sector, were key sources of weakness - with output dropping dramatically over the past few months."Exports remain a bright spot, he said, but this is sure to change with the increasing possibility of a global recession and the expected decline in demand for products destined for U.S. markets.Also, retailers have been paring inventories, and this is another drag on the warehouse market, he said in the report.Colliers predicts industrial leasing conditions will remain sluggish through at least the first half of next year.San Francisco ChronicleTrouble for grizzlies in Montana, Yellowstonehttp://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/11/16/INK5142KJN.DTL&type=printableDEVELOPMENT: Bad news for bears in Montana and Yellowstone.WHAT IT MEANS: Grizzlies seem to be on the downturn again. During the past decade, wildlife managers killed 58 of the federally protected bruins in northwestern Montana, making biologists the biggest cause of human-related grizzly bear deaths in the region, ahead of train or car strikes (46), illegal shooting (34) and self-defense (20). Such killings - called management removals - happen when grizzlies raid garbage or kill livestock on private land. Another population of grizzlies, in and around Yellowstone National Park, got off the endangered species list in 2007 thanks to rebounding numbers. But since then, 64 bears have died, mostly in management removals and incidents with hunters. If the trend continues, Yellowstone bears could regain protected status. "It's not rocket science," says Montana bear manager Jamie Jonkel in the Great Falls Tribune. "If you don't want (problems with) the bears, get rid of the attractants that draw them in."- Jodi PetersonMining boom more like a puffDevelopment: World economic slump leads to mining anticlimax in the WestWhat it means: Over the past couple years, it's looked like the region would see a resurgence in hard-rock mining, thanks in large part to China's booming economy. Copper prices stayed well above $3 per pound; molybdenum hovered over $30 per pound. Towns like Leadville, Colo., which was devastated when the Climax molybdenum mine shut down in 1982, anticipated hundreds of new jobs from new, reopened or expanded mines. But now, with moly prices plunging below $15 and copper flagging between $1 and $2, some of those projects are in jeopardy. Phoenix mining giant Freeport-McMoran, for example, has scrapped plans to reopen the massive Climax pit and will dismiss up to 100 full-time employees and cut production at its Henderson moly mine in Colorado. It may also tighten up its copper operations, several of which are in Arizona and New Mexico. It's unclear whether China's $586 billion economic stimulus package will able to boost the market again soon. Suddenly, it looks like this boom might be over before it even starts.- Sarah Gilman Another one bites the dustDevelopment: U.S. Rep. Marilyn Musgrave was the Richard Pombo of the 2008 electionWhat it means: The decisive defeat of Musgrave, the three-term Republican who represented Colorado's Fourth District, was due in part to the $1.6 million poured into the campaign by the Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund - the group that spent $1.5 million in 2006 to defeat notoriously anti-conservation Richard Pombo of Tracy, the former Republican chairman of the House Resources Committee. Using the same strategy, the Defenders started running ads against Musgrave more than four months before the election. The anti-immigrant, pro-gun, anti-gay, pro-life, anti-labor Musgrave, a devout Pentecostal, denounced the Defenders as "environmental extremists." Unlike Pombo, Musgrave was not a senior member of a committee that deals with the environment, but Defenders President Rodger Schlickeisen said "she stood out because we thought she was so out of step." Musgrave lost to Democrat Betsy Markey, 44 to 56 percent of the vote, suffering the worst defeat of any Republican House incumbent in the nation. Musgrave has made no comment, and has yet to concede. Meanwhile, the Defenders are scanning the field for their 2010 target.- Marty DurlinContra Costa TimesMountain House is treading water...Jeanine Benca And Mike Martinez, Valley Timeshttp://www.contracostatimes.com/ci_10994413?nclick_check=1MOUNTAIN HOUSE — The furniture haulers arrive after dark for some families. "It's very sad when you see a moving van coming in the middle of the night because people are embarrassed that they're in foreclosure," said Toni Dalrymple, a Mountain House resident who paid $800,000 for her family's house in 2006. As of July, their home was worth $359,000, she said.There are no abandoned mills or factories, no boarded up storefronts, no drug dealers on street corners. The spanking new streets of this 5-year-old planned community are full of good-looking homes with nice cars in front.Yet this unincorporated town of fewer than 8,000 — up to its eyeballs in debt — has become the poster child for America's growing economic crisis.Though the paint has barely dried on the homes — the first batch was sold by Trimark Communities LLC in 2003 — nearly 90 percent are "under water," with homeowners owing far more on their homes than they are now worth.Things got worse for the already beleaguered residents when their 95391 ZIP code popped up as No. 1 on a list of U.S. ZIP codes with the highest percentage of homeowners with negative equity. The report, released Monday by the real estate data company First American CoreLogic, shows Mountain House is the most underwater spot in the nation. The news brought droves of reporters into the community, and local business and political leaders are eager to counteract the bad publicity."There's all of the stuff in the news, (but) we're not seeing the community rot. The community is very alive," said Jim Lamb, a Realtor and property manager just elected to the Mountain House community services district board. He questions the "most under water" statistic, which was based on a study of 1,856 mortgages in the 3,000-home Mountain House area. The data showed 1,647 homes are under water, and 52 more are nearing that mark."Comparing us to every other city in the nation isn't really fair because every other (city) in the nation has existed for more than five years," Lamb said. "If you just isolated all the (new) homes that sold five years ago (in any other community), you'd find ... the same situation."Billed as "The Town of Tomorrow," Mountain House was to be a new city of 15,000 homes — built from the ground up, with its own government, parks and downtown. Families were drawn by the houses with lush amenities sold for a fraction of prices for older Bay Area homes. Real estate investors bought properties in hopes of "flipping" to make a profit.Home prices started in the mid-$300,000 range, but they began to skyrocket. They peaked in early 2007, when some sold for more than $800,000. Then came the crash.Now, with San Joaquin County leading the nation in foreclosures and bringing property values down with it, Mountain House homes are selling near their 2003 prices.Most every block has a few empty homes awaiting auction or resale by the bank they were foreclosed by. But not everyone sees the future as bleak."The No. 1 question people ask me is, 'Is Mountain House going to be a ghost town?'" said Dalrymple. "And I say, 'absolutely not.' Because the things that drew people out here in the first place are still here. People aren't going to just pick up and go."Unlike many others, the Dalrymples weren't victims of the subprime loan mess. They had "a good fixed-rate loan," Dalrymple said. But when she lost her job as a mortgage underwriter, Dalrymple said she and her husband could no longer afford their $4,000 monthly mortgage.They were headed toward foreclosure when their lending company offered them a temporary reprieve — 2 percent interest for the next two years. Their payment dropped to $2,500 and they could stay in their home, at least for now.The interest rate will jump to 4 percent in the third and fourth years, and then, "It's market rate again," said Dalrymple, who said they don't know what the future will hold in five years.Since January, 358 Mountain House homes have gone into foreclosure or are about to be foreclosed upon, according to the Web site realtytrac.com. Foreclosures and preforeclosures number 3,119 in nearby Tracy — a San Joaquin County city of 80,000. That's almost four times that of Livermore, the closest Alameda County city. Making it worse for Mountain House is the uncertainty of the future.An affiliate of Pleasanton-based Pegasus Development was to build the Mountain House business park, but it lost its 140 acres planned for shopping, offices and restaurants in August when the company defaulted on its loan and filed for bankruptcy. The business park is expected to remain a dirt field for the foreseeable future — leaving the isolated suburban community with only a minimart to handle its needs. A new San Joaquin Delta College campus was supposed to be built nearby, but three newly-elected trustees are considering a Tracy move.Despite the troubled forecast, Eric Teed-Bose, director of development for Trimark, Mountain House's master-developer, defends the housing project."We're really on track. We're grateful we got as much of Mountain House built as we did before the current correction occurred," Teed-Bose said Friday. "Mountain House continues to grow. There are still homes being built and people want to live there. The values are resetting."For residents such as Norm and Lolo Klino, good times can't return soon enough.They paid $470,000 for their house in 2004. Today, it is worth $320,000, Norm Klino said. For now, they have good jobs — Lolo with Chevron and Norm with Lawrence Livermore Laboratory. They can afford their payments and are determined to "stick it out," Norm said.Asked at what point they would consider abandoning ship, such as if the house's value dropped below $200,000, Norm laughed nervously, then paused."I mean, can they even build a house for that much?" he asked.Santa Cruz SentinelDan Haifley, Our Ocean Backyard: Hidden creeks flow to the oceanhttp://www.santacruzsentinel.com/localnews/ci_10998800You may not notice them as they meander, quietly, behind our parks and our streets and near our homes, carrying water to our estuaries, bays and to the ocean.But some of you may have noticed those round blue signs next to area roadways. They identify creeks or rivers that you may have passed many times but you never knew existed. In Santa Cruz County, these signs are part of an effort by the Resource Conservation District to increase public awareness of local watersheds thanks to funding from the Community Foundation of Santa Cruz County, the California Coastal Conservancy, the city of Santa Cruz Water Department and others. This and similar efforts in the region install signs identifying creeks and watershed boundaries, which complements work to reduce pollutants that flow to our rivers, creeks and the ocean.The term watershed describes a land area from which water flows downhill to a single spot. Water drains both underground and on the surface into streams, rivers, lakes and estuaries, eventually reaching the ocean. The major watersheds that send water into the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary include the Carmel River, Salinas River, Pajaro River, San Lorenzo River, Gazos Creek, Scott Creek and Elkhorn Slough. To see a map of the major watersheds in the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary region, visit http://montereybay.noaa.gov/monitoringnetwork/map.html. The health of the ocean is influenced by the quality of the water that flows into it. Each watershed hosts a network of waterways -- some seasonal, some which are wet year-round -- that support plant life, which in turn provides shelter for birds and animals and also provides shade and shelter for fish. Some of the water we consume comes from above-ground sources, which, if the conditions are right, can re-charge underground aquifers. Some coastal aquifers, which also supply drinking water, have been heavily mined and are subject to saltwater intrusion.In past columns, I've discussed how the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary, Coastal Watershed Council, Citizen Watershed Monitoring Network and others have worked to gauge the quality of water in rivers and creeks throughout the Central California coast. Pollutants such as nutrients, sediments and pathogens exceed state quality standards in many Central California waterways. These pollutants can harm fish and wildlife, cause illness for people who swim or surf and can make beaches unsafe and unsightly.Recent published reports on storm water pollution such as First Flush and Snapshot Day often paint an alarming picture, but they give public agencies, volunteers and conservation groups a good idea of where they need to focus their work to improve the health of area watercourses and, ultimately, the ocean.Incorporating watersheds, rivers and creeks into our sense of place can lead to increased efforts to protect them. During the initial work done by the Santa Cruz County Resource Conservation District, 135 round blue signs were installed identifying 36 creeks and 10 watersheds. There are just over 200 named creeks and 19 watersheds in the county with countless unnamed creeks and streams leaving opportunities for additional sign locations.Angie Stuart of the Santa Cruz County Resource Conservation District says, "The design of the watershed signs was taken from a program in San Diego. The Southern Sonoma County RCD did a similar program and also created a guide for the project, which was very helpful in getting our program started."This has been a really fun yet challenging project," notes Stuart. "I've lived in Santa Cruz almost my entire life and was amazed to learn that there were creeks right in Live Oak that I didn't even know existed, let alone their names. Two of my favorite discoveries were Leona Creek on Brommer Street near Seventh Avenue that flows into Schwan Lake and Borregas Creek that meanders right next to the Farm restaurant near Cabrillo College."I hope that the signs can be adopted by Caltrans as a standard sign and be used by other agencies and organizations throughout California to designate the watershed of any critical water body, such as water supply reservoirs, groundwater basins, or coastal lagoons. The city of Santa Cruz is currently working with Caltrans to install the signs on Highway 9, 17 and 1 in locations that drain to the city's water supply watersheds. I think they expect that to happen sometime next year."If you know the names of local creeks and streams that are not identified on county maps but may have names known locally in neighborhoods, or if you are interested in sponsoring a sign on a particular creek, PLEASE contact Stuart at astuart@rcdsantacruz.org. You can find conservation districts in communities outside the county at the California Association of Resource Conservation District Web site at www.carcd.org.Healthy watersheds contribute to ocean health. They are therefore important to area fisheries, and in my next column I will start to explore the history of fishing on the Central California coast.Dan Haifley is executive director of O'Neill Sea Odyssey. He can be reached at dhaifley@oneillseaodyssey.org.Los Angeles TimesAuburn Dam may really be dead this timeIf California rescinds the water rights it granted to the federal government, the troubled project might never be revived...Nancy Vogelhttp://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-dam16-2008nov16,0,4500204,print.storyReporting from Sacramento — Use it or lose it is the rule of California water rights, and after 43 years, the would-be Auburn Dam -- subject of one of the state's bitterest water feuds -- is about to lose it.The proposed plug on the gold-sprinkled American River northeast of Sacramento has been declared dead many times since Congress authorized it in 1965, and there may be no reviving it now. The state is poised to take back the legal right it granted to the federal government to store water behind the dam. Without that right, the federal government cannot build a reservoir, and the state has never been inclined to build one itself."Auburn Dam" are fighting words in Northern California, pitting river rafters and other nature lovers against those who say that California's thirst and the Sacramento area's vulnerability to floods demand the trapping and storing of more Sierra snowmelt. Money is at the heart of the fight. Dam opponents argue that the multibillion-dollar price of an Auburn Dam would outweigh its benefits, while backers say a dam would eventually pay for itself and save untold lives. The struggle has played out for decades in Congress and in the halls of Sacramento and Placer County governments.The nation's taxpayers have sunk $325 million into the project, with little to show beyond stacks of reports and a scarred canyon where construction was halted in 1975. So the state Water Resources Control Board is expected soon to finalize a draft decision to revoke the federal government's rights.At the same time, the Auburn Dam's most powerful advocate prepares to retire from Congress. Republican Rep. John T. Doolittle of Roseville, who garnered tens of millions of federal dollars for study of a big dam at Auburn during his 18-year congressional career, decided this year not to run for reelection. He faces federal scrutiny of his ties to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff.Doolittle will leave Congress in January. The race to replace him was so tight that elections officials aren't sure yet whether the winner is Republican state Sen. Tom McClintock, who vows to keep pushing for a dam, or Democrat and Air Force veteran Charlie Brown, who opposes it.If McClintock wins, his quest for construction of an Auburn Dam would face steep odds that would be even higher after a revocation of water rights. The project would have to be reauthorized by Congress, because costs have grown tremendously since 1965, and the agencies most likely to buy water and power from the dam project have shown little interest in sharing construction costs. And the federal government would have to apply anew for state water rights."You'll never get the water rights back" once they are revoked, Doolittle said in a recent interview.He predicted that an Auburn dam would be built some day, but not the kind he sought, with a big lake to provide water, electricity, recreation and flood control.Sacramento will eventually require a dam to guard against floods, Doolittle said. But without water rights, the federal government would be limited to building a "dry" dam -- a concrete wall with a big hole in it to let the American River flow unimpeded most of the time and hold back water temporarily only in the event of a gigantic flood.Dry dams were proposed by Sacramento flood-control officials twice in the 1990s but not funded by Congress."For heaven's sake, we ought to be storing water," said Doolittle. "We're the ones who supply Southern California with their water."A dam at Auburn was long planned as part of the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation's Central Valley Project, an audacious network of dams and canals that provides subsidized water to farmers from Redding to Bakersfield. But construction at Auburn stalled after an earthquake made federal engineers rethink the seismic safety of a thin-arch concrete dam. Work was not resumed amid concerns about cost and the submersion of nearly 50 miles of river canyon.Various incarnations of the dam have been touted by federal dam builders, valley farmers and Sacramento flood control officials for decades, all of them attacked by local river enthusiasts and national environmental groups.Doolittle faulted "conniving environmentalists" for persuading the State Water Resources Board last month to revoke the Auburn Dam water rights under a state law that requires rights holders to exercise "due diligence" in putting their water to good use.Last month, in the draft revocation order, the water board noted that the federal government was supposed to finish the dam by 1975 and put all the water to "beneficial use" by 2000."Reclamation has failed to meet these deadlines and subsequently failed to diligently pursue a request for an extension of time," the board wrote. "Accordingly, cause for revocation exists."The water board rejected the federal argument that California should let Washington keep the water rights out of deference to Congress, which has not undone its 1965 dam authorization.Still, dam backers do not concede defeat.Earlier this month, 18 persistent members of the Auburn Dam Council met, as they do the first Monday of every month, at a Coco's coffee shop in suburban Sacramento. Mostly white-haired retired engineers and water board directors, they resumed an ongoing discussion about winning over reluctant city and county officials to the merits of the dam. "They should have this right on the wall in [Sacramento] City Hall," said Joe Sullivan, who held up a newspaper graphic showing where hundreds of people perished in the 2005 Hurricane Katrina flooding of New Orleans.After the meeting, Sullivan, president of the Sacramento County Taxpayers League, called the expected water rights revocation "temporarily the end.""They'll build Auburn Dam," he said, "right after Sacramento is flooded to 7 feet and people have died."And defenders of the North Fork of the American River are not claiming victory. They figure the fight will continue as long as inundation threatens Sacramento and Southern California needs water.Ron Stork has argued against the dam for 21 years at the nonprofit group Friends of the River. The controversy, he said, "will never go away."New York TimesIn Fighting Wildfires, Concerns About Chemicals http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/16/us/16wildfires.html?_r=1&sq=endangered20species&st=nyt&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&scp=3&pagewanted=print&adxnnlx=1226869224R+7ES9PBWrxINTC9at4CHAThe red clouds of fire retardant dropped onto the flames near Santa Barbara, Calif., on Friday were a welcome sight for owners of the hillside homes there. “Critical,” Bill Payne, deputy chief of aviation for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, said of the retardant’s role in helping to steer the fire away from populated areas, including the exclusive enclave of Montecito. “I mean, this is almost downtown Santa Barbara we’re talking about. We’re trying to keep it away from the town. We’re trying to herd it back into the forest.”Retardant, whether released by small planes that sweep low through smoky canyons or by DC-10s in 12,000-gallon bursts, has become an increasingly common tool for fighting wildfires. Yet while many residents praise — and even demand — the use of retardant to protect their homes and neighborhoods, the potent mix of chemicals in the most common type can leave scars of its own, hurting watersheds and the fish and other animals that live in them. Increasing concerns over retardant are prompting opposition to its use in certain situations and further stirring the debate in the West over how much is too much when it comes to fighting wildfires.“It’s fairly well known that it’s toxic to aquatic organisms, to fish,” said Sue Husari, the fire management officer for the Pacific West region of the National Park Service. “In a lot of cases, we prefer to limit its use, but it’s definitely one of the tools we use.”The use of the most common type of retardant, a fertilizer-like, phosphate-based compound, can vary by state or by who oversees the land where a fire is spreading. Among federal agencies, the Park Service is relatively cautious with retardant because part of its mission is to protect natural and cultural resources for public use. The State of California, however, has the largest aviation fire operation of any state and uses retardant aggressively not only to contain fires — retardant’s intended purpose — but also to try to extinguish them before they reach populated areas. The Forest Service, which oversees the largest share of the nation’s wildfire-fighting operations, has a laboratory devoted to testing retardant produced by private companies. In a sign of how contentious the issue has become, the agency is being sued in federal court in Montana by a group that says retardant threatens endangered species, including salmon, a claim the agency rejects.“We have the same environmental concerns as anybody,” said Tory Henderson, branch chief for equipment and chemicals at the Forest Service. “We always are looking for a more environmentally friendly product.”Airplanes and helicopters have long worked in concert with ground crews to fight big wildfires. When used effectively, retardant draws a chemical line in the landscape that can keep a fire from spreading while ground crews work to get it under control. But it can also be little more than a red streak of false reassurance, coating hillsides and the occasional house in what critics say is too often an ineffective, expensive public relations effort to appease the increasingly dense populations living in wildfire-prone areas.Government budgets for fighting wildfires have soared in recent years, reflecting a more assertive approach that critics say places too much emphasis on putting out fires that occur naturally in arid parts of the West.“It’s just bombs away,” said Timothy Ingalsbee, a former wildland firefighter who now heads Firefighters United for Safety, Ethics and Ecology.Still, many people who fight wildfires say that some of the resources that people are concerned will be damaged by retardant could potentially be lost to fire. Even in national parks, where some officials have called off the use of retardant to protect historic structures or wildlife from the chemicals, others have requested more retardant. And in more developed areas, particularly in California, the loudest critics of fire policy are those who want more use of retardant, not less, fire officials say.“The second we don’t, they’re calling us: ‘Where are you?’ ” said Mr. Payne, of the state fire department. Speaking of the environmental threats of retardant, he said, “It’s the people whose houses are not on fire that are concerned about it.”In the federal lawsuit in Montana, the Forest Service is being sued by a group of current and former employees and others who are demanding that the agency conduct a comprehensive environmental study of the impact of retardant under the Endangered Species Act. The suit cites a 2002 retardant drop on a river in central Oregon that killed 20,000 fish. Current federal policy encourages pilots not to drop retardant within 300 feet of a body of water, but it allows for exceptions if flying conditions require it or if lives or property are in danger. By 2011, according to officials with the Forest Service in Montana, the most common type of retardant will have lower amounts of ammonia and will therefore be less harmful to fish and aquatic environments. Private companies have also used other chemicals to develop gels and foams that are popular among some firefighting agencies, though retardant is used by most.The Forest Service says that the number of cases it has found where retardant affected waterways is so small — 14 out of thousands of retardant drops since 2000 — that mitigation measures already in place suffice. In January, the judge in the Montana case, Donald W. Molloy, threatened to jail the head of the Forest Service, Mark Rey, and to halt its use of retardant because it did not respond to court orders on time. After a hearing the next month, Judge Molloy decided against jailing Mr. Rey and allowed the use of retardant to continue. But Judge Molloy let the case proceed, and last month the plaintiffs asked him to make a decision in the case.“The chance of some stream being hit by retardant is virtually certain, and so, of course, you have to consider the consequences,” said Andy Stahl, executive director of the group that brought the suit, Forest Service Employees for Environmental Ethics. “It’s already happened 14 times.”In California in September, retardant-dropping planes were called in when the 3,700-acre Hidden Fire rushed toward a ridge above a complex of caves in Sequoia National Park. Then a cave expert and others in the park warned that the retardant could seep into underground streams that were home to rare spiders and isopods. The drops were stopped, and the Park Service approved a study of whether the cave streams were affected.“Fire is not new,” said Joel Despain, the cave expert. “We know that these animals and these caves must have been through fires in the past, because there were fires here in the 1920s. But the retardant is something new. That’s something these animals have not seen before.”