Just what the San Joaquin Valley needed: a derivative market in water.
Now, magic thinking has completely taken over, but it remains to be seen how much water can be created out of dust by the Invisible Middle Finger of the Free Market.
Can derivatives on farm labor be far behind?--wmh
California Water Futures Begin Trading Amid Fear of Scarcity
Futures on California water index launched by CME Group
Contracts seen useful for farmers, cities to hedge water risk
Water joined gold, oil and other commodities traded on Wall Street, highlighting worries that the life-sustaining natural resource may become scarce across more of the world.
Farmers, hedge funds and municipalities alike are now able to hedge against -- or bet on -- future water availability in California, the biggest U.S. agriculture market and world’s fifth-largest economy. CME Group Inc.’s1. January 2021 contract, linked to California’s $1.1 billion spot water market, last traded Monday at 496 index points, equal to $496 per acre-foot.
The contracts, a first of their kind in the U.S., were announced in September as heat and wildfires ravaged the U.S. West Coast and as California was emerging from an eight-year drought. They are meant to serve both as a hedge for big water consumers, such as almond farmers and electric utilities, against water prices fluctuations as well a scarcity gauge for investors worldwide.
“Climate change, droughts, population growth, and pollution are likely to make water scarcity issues and pricing a hot topic for years to come,” said RBC Capital Markets managing director and analyst Deane Dray. “We are definitely going to watch how this new water futures contract develops.”
The United Nations has long warned that human-driven climate change is leading to severe droughts and more flooding, making water availability increasingly less predictable. In California, the most recent acute dry spell stretched from December 2011 until March of last year, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The most dire effects took hold in July 2014, with 58% of the state’s land suffering “exceptional drought,” leading to crop and pasture losses and other water emergencies.
The futures are tied to the Nasdaq Veles California Water Index, which was started two years ago and measures the volume-weighted average price of water. The January 2021 water contract that went live Monday had two trades.
“I’m delighted we’ve had trades,” said Clay Landry, managing director at consulting firm WestWater Research, which provides the data used to calculate the water index. “In the physical market, it’s so hard to get a deal done. This feels like lightning fast to me.”
The index sets a weekly benchmark spot price of water rights in California, underpinned by the volume-weighted average of the transaction prices in the state’s five largest and most actively traded markets.
The futures are financially settled, as opposed to requiring the actual physical delivery. Contracts include quarterly ones through 2022, with each representing 10 acre-feet of water, equal to roughly 3.26 million gallons.
According to Chicago-based CME, the futures will help water users manage risk and better align supply and demand.
Two billion people now live in nations plagued by water problems, and almost two-thirds of the world could face water shortages in just four years, Tim McCourt, global head of equity index and alternative investment products at CME, said in an interview. “The idea of managing risks associated to water is certainly increased in importance.”
Currently, if a farmer wants to know what water will cost in California six months from now, it’s kind of a “best guess,” Patrick Wolf, senior manager and head of product development at Nasdaq, said in an interview.
The futures will allow market participants to see “what is everybody’s best guess,” he said.
Barton “Buzz” Thompson, a professor of natural-resources law at Stanford University, said while he has “no idea” if the futures will be successful, he doesn’t see it as a transformation of the water market.
“I don’t think the futures contract itself is really changing the water markets,” Thompson said. “Nor is it changing the risk that exists out there that water in the future at some point will be in shorter supply, it’s simply responding to those things.”2.
CME declined to identify potential market participants, except to note that the exchange has heard from California agriculture producers, public water agencies, utilities as well as institutional investors like asset managers and hedge funds.
Landry of WestWater Research said in addition to the likelihood of a “great deal of interest” from Wall Street, he expects the early water futures adopters to be large and small agriculture businesses.
“Without this tool people have no way of managing water supply risk,” Boise, Idaho-based Landry said in an interview. “This may not solve that problem entirely, but it will help soften the financial blow that people will take if their water supply is cut off.”
— With assistance by Elizabeth Elkin
1. Chicago Mercantile Exchange --cmegroup.com
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange is a global derivatives marketplace based in Chicago and located at 20 S. Wacker Drive. The CME was founded in 1898 as the Chicago Butter and Egg Board, an agricultural commodities exchange. Originally, the exchange was a non-profit organization. The Merc demutualized in November 2000, went public in December 2002, and merged with the Chicago Board of Trade in July 2007 to become a designated contract market of the CME Group Inc., which operates both markets. The chairman and chief executive officer of CME Group is Terrence A. Duffy, Bryan Durkin is president. On August 18, 2008, shareholders approved a merger with the Chicago Board of Trade in July 2007 to become a designated contract market of the CME Group Inc., which operates both markets. The chairman and chief executive officer of CME Group is Terrence A. Duffy, Bryan Durkin is president. On August 18, 2008, shareholders approved a merger with the New York Mercantile Exchange and COMEX. CME, CBOT, NYMEX, and COMEX are now markets owned by CME Group. After the merger, the value of the CME quadrupled in a two-year span, with a market cap of over $25 billion.
Growers see initial allocation of 10% for 2021 water year
A dry start to the water year leads the Department of Water Resources to announce an initial 10% allocation
SACRAMENTO – While deciding the final allocation for growers who gather their water from the Friant-Kern Canal is months away, things early on are not looking good.
The California Department of Water Resources announced on Dec. 1 an initial state water project (SWP) allocation of 10% of requested supply for the 2021 water year.
Initial allocations are based on conservative assumptions regarding hydrology and factors such as reservoir storage. Allocations are reviewed monthly and may change based on snowpack and runoff information. They are typically finalized by May.
“While we still have several months ahead of us, dry conditions persist,” said DWR director Karla Nemeth. “As communities throughout California prepare to support their environment and economies through times of extended dry periods, state agencies plan together to support those communities. Californians can help by always using water carefully, inside and outside their homes and businesses.”
DWR’s eight precipitation stations in Northern California recorded a record-low zero percent of average rainfall in October and 53 percent in November.
Most of the state’s major reservoirs are lower than historical average to date compared to a year ago. Lake Shasta, the federal Central Valley Project’s (CVP) largest reservoir, is at 75 percent compared to 119 percent its historical average to date in 2019. Lake Oroville, the SWP’s largest reservoir, holds 61 percent compared to 90 percent of its historical average to date in 2019. San Luis Reservoir, a joint-use facility for the SWP and CVP, now holds 76 percent compared to 72 percent of its historical average to date in 2019.
The 10 percent initial allocation amounts to 422,848 acre-feet of water, distributed among the 29 long-term SWP contractors who serve more than 27 million Californians and 750,000 acres of farmland.
Last year’s initial allocation was 10 percent, with a final allocation of 20 percent set in May.
Nearly all areas served by the SWP have sources of water other than the SWP allocation, such as streams, groundwater, and local reservoirs.
DWR will conduct the season’s first snow survey at Phillips Station in the Sierra Nevada on December 30, 2020. On average, the snowpack supplies about 30 percent of California’s water needs as it melts in the spring and early summer.